Real logistic regression on log market value, one division at a time -- no hand-tuned corrections.
Relegated
Promoted
Neither
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Try a market value
€100M
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Relegation
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Survival
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Promotion
Closed league -- no relegation.
Top-flight division -- nothing to be promoted to.
European qualification
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Champions League
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Europa League
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Conference League
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Rest of Table
Continental qualification
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Copa Libertadores
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Copa Sudamericana
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AFC Champions League Elite
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AFC Champions League Two
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CONCACAF Champions Cup
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CAF Champions League
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CAF Confederation Cup
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OFC Champions League
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Fitted Coefficients
Model
β₀
β₁
AUC
Brier
N
Events
Probability by Market Value
Market Value
Relegation
Survival
Promotion
Every Model, One Table
In-sample fit and evaluation, no held-out split. AUC below ~0.76 means market value separates outcomes noticeably less cleanly at that level -- shown as fit, not adjusted.
Country
Division
Outcome
β₀
β₁
AUC
Brier
N
Events
2026-2027 Season Preview
This season is still in progress. These are NOT results -- they're this season's real current squad market values run through the coefficients already fitted on seven completed seasons of history, with no refitting. Treat as a prediction, not a settled fact.
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-
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Most likely finish
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Likely range
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Survival probability
Dashed marks: not enough historical data to estimate that position -- not the same as a confirmed near-zero chance.
Distribution shown at this club's own real market value for the season above, not a hypothetical.